*Notwithstanding the reimposition of economic sanctions on Iran, the Ayatollah regime has prioritized the swift reconstruction of its conventional, ballistic and nuclear capabilities, where a substantial, unaccounted-for stockpile of highly enriched uranium remains a major concern. Moreover, the IAEA’s most recent reports confirm Iran’s potential production of highly enriched uranium at an accelerated rate, increasing production to over 34 kg of uranium per month by feeding cascades with 20% enriched uranium rather than 5% enriched material, which represents a more efficient pathway toward weapons-grade material.
*In contrast to conventional Western wisdom, Iran considers the negotiations of the post-June 13-24, 2025 war as an opportunity to restore and upgrade military capabilities, in order to advance its 1,400-year-old vision. This vision mandates the global expansion of the Islamic Shia revolution and lay the groundwork for the reappearance of the 939 AD “sublime and infallible” Twelver-Disappearing-Imam, which is preconditioned upon apocalyptic violence and severe suffering by Shia Muslims, stained in the blood of “infidels.” The Shia vision stipulates the toppling of all pro-US Sunni Arab regimes, expanding global Islamic terrorism, and bringing the Western “infidel” to submission, especially “The Great American Satan.” Hence, the systematically bolstered Iranian foothold in South and Central America, as well as the proliferation of sleeper terror cells on US soil (as documented by the FBI, Department of Homeland Security and Director of National Intelligence).
China restores Iran’s ballistic and air defense capabilities
*China has circumvented anti-Iran economic sanctions by the purchase of Iranian oil, emerging as Iran’s most significant supporter, diplomatically and militarily, especially when it comes to ballistic and air defense capabilities.
*According to a September 24, 2025 Associated Press report: “Iran has begun rebuilding missile-production sites… but, a key component is likely still missing — the large mixers needed to produce solid fuel for the weapons. Reconstituting the missile program is crucial for the Islamic Republic…. Obtaining the mixers is a goal for Tehran…. Known as planetary mixers, the machines offer better mixing action than other types of equipment. Iran could purchase them from China, where they’ve purchased missile fuel ingredients and other components in the past…. That infrastructure is still there and ready to get rolling again…. Solid-fuel missiles can be fired faster than those using liquid fuel…. Iran has solid-fuel missile manufacturing bases at Khojir and Parchin, as well as at Shahroud…, which came under Israeli attack in October 2024. The war in June 2025 aimed at destroying buildings that housed the mixers, which are needed to ensure the missile fuel is evenly combined. Other sites struck by Israel included manufacturing facilities that likely could be used to make the mixers. Satellite images from Planet Labs PBC taken this month and analyzed by AP show construction at both the Parchin and Shahroud mixing facilities.
*”The speed at which Iran is rebuilding shows the importance Tehran puts on its missile program….
*”Before the war, Iran was on track to be able to produce more than 200 solid-fuel missiles a month…. If Iran is able to overcome their mixing limitations, they’ll have all the casting capacity that they need to start producing at high volumes again.
“Iran may choose to rely on China to obtain mixers and the chemicals to make solid fuel…. Beijing could supply guidance systems and microprocessors as well for Iran’s ballistic missiles.
*“If Iran restarts its production at prewar levels, the sheer number of missiles produced will make it harder for the Israelis to pre-emptively destroy them….”
*According to the London-based Middle East Eye (allegedly funded by a Qatar-related source): “Iran has taken possession of Chinese surface-to-air missile batteries, as Tehran rapidly moves to rebuild defenses destroyed by Israel during their recent 12-day conflict…. Iran was paying for the SAMs with oil shipments…. nearly 90% of Iran’s crude and condensate exports flow to Beijing….”
*The South Korea-based Military Watch Magazine adds: “….Chinese supplies of longer ranged air defense systemsand supporting electronic warfare, radar and command and control systems may have a particularly significant impact on Iranian defensive capabilities. The Chinese HQ-9B was designed with a high emphasis on mobility, and deploys missiles, radars and command units from mobile trucks to improve survivability. The much more sophisticated state of China’s electronics and radar industries have led analysts to widely assess that the HQ-9B likely retains significant advantages over its Russian rivals…. It provides a multi-layered defence….”
*The Washington, DC-based The Atlantic Council reminds us that: “China’s involvement in Iran’s ballistic program dates back to after the end of the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq war. [Iran has] relied on North Korea and China, to access technology and train its engineers. China eventually supplied Iran with short-range ballistic missiles, as well as cruise and anti-ship missiles. Iran quickly aimed to build its domestic defense industry for missile development and production…. China helped Iranian engineers make progress regarding the propulsion and guidance systems of their arsenal…. To reach the level prior to June’s Twelve-Day War, Iran needs external support. Russia is the most obvious choice. Moscow has long supplied Iran’s air defense systems, and military cooperation between Moscow and Tehran intensified in the past two years…. However, the prolonged conflict with Kiev has drained most of Russia’s resources, and its defense industry cannot deliver what Iran needs. The Chinese military-industrial complex is, therefore, in a better position to meet the needs of the IRGC….”
The bottom line
*The 24/7 effort to restore Iran’s pre-June ballistic and air defense capabilities – mostly by China and possibly by North Korea and Russia – could reconstitute the Ayatollah regime as the chief epicenter of regional and global war, terrorism, drug trafficking and money laundering, with its foothold stretching from the Persian Gulf through Africa to Latin America and US soil.
*The Ayatollah regime’s conventional and ballistic capabilities pose a clear and present threat to regional and global stability.
*The 47-year-long US negotiation with Iran has yielded a robust tailwind to the transformation of Iran from “The American Policeman of the Gulf” to a close strategic ally of China, Russia, North Korea, Cuba and Venezuela.
*The 47-year-long economic sanctions on Iran have been exposed as reversible (e.g., imposed by Trump and suspended by Biden) and by-passable through China, Russia, Qatar, North Korean, Venezuela and other countries.
*Negotiation and economic sanctions have failed to induce the Ayatollah regime to accept peaceful coexistence with its Sunni Arab neighbors, nor to become a good-faith negotiator. The Ayatollah regime will not abandon its 1,400-year-old fanatical, imperialistic and apocalyptic vision.
*Persisting in the self-destructive negotiation and economic sanction options, while refraining from regime-change in Iran could lead to the first-ever apocalyptic nuclear power, bearing catastrophic cost, which would dwarf the current cost of regime-change in Tehran.
This column was published at The Ettinger Report
The views expressed in guest columns are not necessarily the views or positions of the CCNS or its members.
