I remember being told this aforementioned quote while I was serving in the Middle East in combat operations. I think it is quite obvious that to which the maxim alludes, it is about strategic patience and resolve. Islamists, and especially the number one sponsor of Islamic terrorism, Iran, are focused on a long game, not a few weeks. It is important that we remember that Iran has been targeting America for nearly 47 years, and the consequences have been deadly and unforgivable. There has been a two-week ceasefire established with Iran, but can Iran, meaning the regime leadership, be trusted?
My answer is a simple no, and it is rooted in Islamic history, which some continue to whitewash into a favorable perspective. One need only study the Treaty of Hudaybiyyah, circa 628 AD, to understand the Islamist view on negotiations and agreements. When Muhammad sought to invade and conquer Mecca, he was confronted by a Quraysh tribe whose strength he had miscalculated. He entered into a 10-year treaty for peace, which he violated after just three years, after he had expanded the size of his own force. He then invaded and conquered Mecca, subsequently defeating the Quraysh. The example established for Islamists is to enter into “agreements” for only one purpose: to eventually gain an advantage against their enemy, infidels. And of course, those of us who study are aware of the Islamic maxim of taqiyya, the purposeful use of deception and lying in order to further Islamist objectives.
Iran is saying that the ceasefire is in danger of violation due to Israel’s assault against Hezbollah, a proxy non-state, non-uniform belligerent terrorist organization of Iran. Under the guise of taqiyya, of stating that there cannot be any attacks against Lebanon, Iran seeks to protect this terrorist organization, which on October 23, 1983, killed 241 U.S. Marines and Sailors in the Beirut barracks bombing. As well, Iran is demanding that it retain control of the Strait of Hormuz and that it is directly controlled by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps, for a toll. Which reminds me of the Barbary Pirates who were seizing American ships and kidnapping Americans, holding them for ransom. Thomas Jefferson read the Quran, and his response was to send the U.S. Marines in 1802. Some things just do not change.
If there is any advice, counsel, or recommendation I would make, it is to understand that one cannot make a “deal” with delusional, maniacal, tyrannical theocrats and autocrats. This was tried by Neville Chamberlain in 1938 with Adolf Hitler. It was seen as an abject weakness. There is only one way to “deal” with Iran, and that is to understand its center of gravity and isolate it from it.
For Iran and its comrades in the 21st-century axis of evil, their center of gravity is energy resources; it is what props up their economy. And for the Iranians to demand that sanctions be lifted off of them is absurd. Iran cannot be left in charge of a strategic Sea Lane of Communications (SLOC) known as the Strait of Hormuz. Furthermore, we should not lose sight of another critical SLOC, Bab al-Mandab, which is impacted by another Iranian proxy non-state belligerent terrorist organization, the Houthis. As well, Kharg Island, which sits some 25 km off the coast of mainland Iran, is another strategic center of gravity for Iran. The geopolitical objective has to be that Iran cannot hold 20- 25 percent of the world’s energy supply hostage, and neither should it be able to determine what oil supplies can transit to whom. Certainly, it would be to the advantage of China.
From a military objective viewpoint, Operation Epic Fury has been a resounding success. We cannot allow the number one sponsor of Islamic terrorism to hold the region hostage. As well, Iran cannot be allowed to continue developing ballistic missiles and Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs), which they said they did not possess, but somehow shot two toward the Diego Garcia naval base. Their production and manufacturing capability for these weapons has been severely degraded, including that of weaponized drones that they have been supplying to Russia. Their maritime force has been decimated along with their air forces. A great deal of their surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems have been defeated. Now, it is hard to defeat MANPADS (man-portable air defense systems), which, as individual shoulder-fired, heat-seeking missiles, appear to have been the issue with the downed F-15 aircraft.
One of the mandatory readings for me when I was a young Second Lieutenant was Sun Tzu’s Art of War. His counsel is still relevant to this day. It is imperative that we operate from a position of strength, the moral high ground, and assail the centers of gravity for the Iranian regime leadership. This group of deranged Islamists has evidenced little to no concern for the welfare of their own people. Their real gap of exploitation, and that of their alliances, is their control of the flow of oil and goods and services along the two strategic Sea Lines of Communication (SLOCs) of Hormuz and al-Mandab.
Trust Iran? Absolutely not. They represent another domino to fall in the conflagration against this new axis of evil that the free world faces.
Steadfast and Loyal.
The views expressed in CCNS member articles are not necessarily the views or positions of the entire CCNS. They are the views of the authors, who are members of the CCNS.
